BB king
Man blackberry, who the hell thought I’d be investing in you after the fall of BBM and Brickbreaker. Well, strap in folks as I take you through one of the most bullish stories in stonk history, and it all starts with one statement. Everything you’re thinking about with Blackberry at the moment, is wrong.
It is not a phone company. It is not telling you to use BBM. It is a software, automotive, and cybersecurity company that is about to make a killing.
Let’s begin:
BB stock price, 6.71 as of Close on 1-6-2021.
BB stock price, 9.84 as of Close on 1-18-2021. Only 9 days since I first posted. This is just the beginning.
Technically, this thing is a fucking beauty. MACD flip, Stoch RSI cross, volume died on the sells and the thing is pushing up just the market died twice while it had solid momentum. This is going to move soon, but let’s go away from crayons and into the magical land of make believe, news events, conferences, and fundamentals. It’s not just two letters, it’s a business. https://www.tradingview.com/x/uI3Cl51F/
Lets look at the daily continuation, we have some strong momentum brewing. https://www.tradingview.com/x/C61OmiEK/
Monthly is a whole new monster. https://www.tradingview.com/x/toa2tFUc/ Look at those long green wicks, engulfing entire consolidation patterns and our current monthly is just beginning its movement for this uptrend. As more individuals and investors understand the value of Blackberry and their products, this will just slingshot quite quickly into the expected value areas.
My value, non technical targets are 15, 30, 50. 50 you might ask???? Yeah lets look at why:
Recent Earnings
| Fiscal Quarter End | Date Reported | Earnings Per Share* | Consensus EPS* Forecast | % Surprise |
| Nov 2020 | 12/17/2020 | 0 | -0.04 | 100 |
| Aug 2020 | 09/24/2020 | 0.1 | -0.02 | 600 |
| May 2020 | 06/24/2020 | 0 | -0.04 | 100 |
| Feb 2020 | 03/31/2020 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 500 |
Surprises along the board.
Revenues last quarter, $224 MM.
Revenues projected for Q4, $246 MM. This will be beaten immensely.
Full year Guidance 2021, $950 MM.
Mkt cap, $4 B.
Total company non-GAAP revenue of $224 million; total company GAAP revenue of $218 million. Non-GAAP earnings per basic and diluted share of $0.02; GAAP loss per basic and diluted share of $0.23. Net cash generated from operating activities of $29 million.
Saw this cute image of CRWD PLTR and SNOW, all with similar or lower Revs but SNOW is half but worth 20x BB, CRWD has less revs but is operating at 11.75x, PLTR (WSB fav) has 50M more projected annual revs and is worth 11x. Alright who cares about revenue, that’s only today.
NEWS EVENTS
- FB settlement
I’m not going to go into deep detail here as it is quite intricate and all I know is that BB won a suit against Zuckerberg $FB related to messaging, whatsapp, and something else. $FB has till January 15th, 2020 to settle, see here: https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.331602/gov.uscourts.cand.331602.144.0.pdf
This settlement has now occurred. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/tech-and-telecom-law/blackberry-and-facebook-are-in-process-of-global-settlement
Someone I know and trust let me know that there are rumors that the settlement is worth $2B and a 2 year partnership. This is not fact, just rumor, but if it is true that is MASSIVE.
- BlackBerry IVY – Intellectual Vehicle Data Platform
The big kahuna that will change BB for the next few years. Per BB website: “BlackBerry and AWS are joining forces to develop BlackBerry IVY, a scalable, cloud-connected software platform that will allow automakers to create personalized driver and passenger experiences and improve operations of connected vehicles with new BlackBerry QNX and AWS technology.”
What does it mean to the end consumer (the automakers?)
IVY Fueling Business Outcomes
BlackBerry IVY will help automakers and automotive suppliers:
- Fuel Innovation by supporting rapid development of new customer experiences
- Drive Revenue by unlocking new revenue streams and business models
- Reduce Costs by moving processing to the edge & reducing raw data transmission
- Improve Operations with enhanced data visibility and access
- Expand Ecosystems by unlocking the broader app developer community
Wanna watch a video? https://youtu.be/fwDnUNENSoY
Want a TL;DR? Automotive, cloud, cybersecurity, IOT, electric vehicles, every bubble on the planet. And this shit got all of it. Want more info? https://blackberry.qnx.com/en/aws Read this and watch their conferences coming up.
- The IVY deal has so much commercial promise. Manufacturers are going to buy IVY because of the data gathering, but more importantly IVY is going to become the universal app store for automotive apps. The IVY platform will be universal across manufacturers and models so a developer can build an app that will work on any car that has IVY. BB will take an app store like commission on revenue. Billions.
- After cars, IVY and QNX will move to the broader Internet of Things. Planes, trains, medical devices, EVERYTHING will be connected and needs to be secure. BB has competitive advantages over all the other players, especially Linux because it is not secure, while BB’s QNX has the highest achievable safety certs.
- If the automotive biz wasn’t enough they have interesting offerings in corporate data security, anti-virus, and emergency notification systems. They are literally in some of the hottest spaces you could be right now, with no signs of cooling.
As of their conferences, IVY and QNX both seem to be opening up many many more avenues of revenue to tackle within the auto space. Per Steve Rai, what was typically 2-3 avenues of revenue is not 5-6, with IVY being a HUGE 7th.
- Partnerships with big companies
Blackberry partnered with Zoom (link: https://blogs.blackberry.com/en/2020/10/blackberry-and-zoom-together-secure-your-virtual-enterprise-meetings), Microsoft Teams (link: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-athoc-integrates-with-microsoft-teams-for-critical-event-management-301147559.html) and ServiceNow. BB’s Incident Management Response System AtHoc is integrating into the NOW platform. Cybersecurity adding onto big big platforms that exploded this past year. MORE MONEY. I think this should pull above $10 MM per month, $120MM a year? Sounds enticing to me when we are at $~1B revenue with a 76% gross margin.
Recent Sony event announced a BlackBerry partnerhsip, per CEO @JohnChen on Twitter: Thank you for your partnership @Sony. You are an icon and I look forward to experiencing your #ElectricVehicle embedded with @BlackBerry software. But first, where I can get a #Playstation5? #EV#PS5
Only a matter of time before the rocket emojis pop up on his twitter.
Before I continue, I want to shoutout Dave Portnoy and the Barstool Fund, one of the only entities actually trying to save small business. https://www.barstoolsports.com/the-barstool-fund. You will likely make money from this trade if you long BB, so donate some proceeds, or if you have had a good year, donate to help some struggling small businesses while you still can. To the US Government, especially individuals like Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, and Andrew Cuomo, do your goddamn job or get the hell out of office.
- Patents
BB started offloading old patents but have one that will be important as of recent, with the sexiest one being this: https://uspto.report/patent/grant/10880812
BB Selling Smartphone Patents to Huawei, more $$$$ coming in. Recent Sale news here: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-blackberry-sells-90-patents-to-huawei-covering-key-smartphone/?cmpid=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
BB JUST won a suit against Facebook for one of the patents they hold: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/tech-and-telecom-law/blackberry-and-facebook-are-in-process-of-global-settlement. This is minimum likely worth $500 MM+, but to my knowledge off of some juicy rumors, this is a $2B settlement with FB and a 2 year partnership. MASSIVE.
Business Implications
BB makes their money from licensing, cybersecurity (one of the only companies that have not been hacked in this SolarWind shit), BB QNX is already in 175 MM cars worldwide, partnered with XPEV, and is in talks with multiple Tier 1 automakers, 20 different OEMs, and will be in vehicles by 2023. Does that mean anything now? Yes, you dumbass. Per CEO John Chen, my new president, #DidYouKnow @BlackBerry has been selected by 19 of the top 25 #ElectricVehicle manufacturers, and they represent 61% of the Electric Vehicle market?
Bubblicious and sexy. Expect some of the big tier 1s like Nissan, Toyota, BMW, and others to jump on this train. Think TSLA doesn’t have competition? They cant even make a billion dollars unless they sell stock.
Here is the biggest catch: Right now the auto industry is actually selling less cars, and many of the EVs that BB is partnered with are really in the liftoff phase. When XPEV (my favorite EV and I am working on my print for them as we speak), NIO, BIDU, Hyundai, get their EV and Self Driving Cars off the ground and start growing their vehicle output, this number will grow and grow. BB is really at the brink of an explosive couple of years. You are entering at the ground floor.
CONFERENCES
BB has just spoken at the following conferences:
Thursday January 7th, 2021
Citi’s 2021 Global TMT West Virtual Conference with the Steve Rai, Blackberry CFO and John Wall, Co-Head of BlackBerry Technology Solutions (BTS)
Tuesday January 12th, 2021
JP Morgan 19th Annual Tech / Auto Forum with the Steve Rai, Blackberry CFO and John Wall, Co-Head of BlackBerry Technology Solutions (BTS)
Video: https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1416508&tp_key=f61fad713f
Transcript: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4398669-blackberry-limiteds-bb-management-presents-jpmorgans-19th-annual-tech-auto-forum-conference
Friday, January 15th, 2021
Needham’s 23rd Annual Virtual Growth Conference with Ryan Permeh, Blackberry Chief Security Architect & Co-founder of Cylance and Eric Cornelius, Blackberry Chief Product Architect. (WSB managed to crash their website and flood the stream…)
Video: https://wsw.com/webcast/needham103/bb/1838040
Conclusion:
This stock will generate a lot more cash in the coming years, will gain in the short term by offloading old patents, settling with FB and getting some moolah, growing in their partnership with Bezos gang, roll out to more EVs with Tier 1 and Tier 2 automotive companies, and compete with Tesla on this as well. This shit trades at $6.70 and is so close to going up if the market just doesn’t crash in the interim. They already are used by big companies for Access and other Mobile applications, so that someone can securely use their dinky iPhone to work. Think big whales aren’t interested? Look at 2022 2023 option OI.
I think this goes to lower PT of $15 very fast. uThInKitWiLLdOUbleINmKTcAp???? Yes, this is trading at 4X sales only, will be profitable this year, and has so much shit coming up. This is tiny for its revenue compared to the rest of the market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Just buy the stock and sit on it. Want options? Buy them too. Have fun guys, I hope you all make money.
QNX CUSTOMERS (see anyone you know?)
• XPENG • PLUS • ARCFOX • DESAY SV • CANOO • DAMON MOTORCYCLES • RENOVO • ARIVVAL • HYUNDAI AUTRON • DENSO • JAGUA LAND ROVER • LG • RENESAS • BYTON • NVIDIA • BAIDU • QUALCOMM • TATA ELXSI • DELPHI TEAMS • Space X • Ford • BOSCH • KARMA • AMAZON • Rivian • Lordstown • Fisker • Hyliion • Sony • NIO • Lucid Motors
In addition: SpaceX is already integrated with BB, and more space shuttles/ rockets will follow. Cathie Woods new space ETF? 100% will have $BB in it alongside her primary ETFs as well. This is a no brainer. BB to the moon.
NEWS UPDATES
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